← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 52% | 55% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | fair |
| Empoli win | 21% | 17% | 4.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kevin Mirallas · ACF Fiorentina |
| 53' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 59' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · ACF Fiorentina |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gerson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 78' | ⚽ | Bryan Dabo · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 563.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1639.49 | 1583.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.63 | 19.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |