← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 61% | 63% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 17% | 3.82 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 14% | 20% | 7.10 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Simone Padoin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nikola Maksimović · SSC Napoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 168.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 6.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1618.59 | 1957.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.39 | 7.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 17.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 27.82 | 25.56 |
| state index | -0.06 | 1.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |