β Serie A 2018-19 Β· Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 61% | 63% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.83 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 14% | 11% | 7.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | π¨ | Simone Zaza Β· Torino FC |
| 48' | π¨ | Miralem PjaniΔ Β· Juventus FC |
| 51' | π¨ | Emre Can Β· Juventus FC |
| 70' | π¨ | Cristiano Ronaldo Β· Juventus FC |
| 70' | β½ (pen) | Cristiano Ronaldo Β· Juventus FC |
| 72' | π¨ | Cristian Ansaldi Β· Torino FC |
| 90' | π¨ | Mattia Perin Β· Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 348.00 | 1628.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1641.33 | 1958.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.60 | 21.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | β |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| league points | 22.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 2.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | β | 26.75 |
| state index | 0.60 | 1.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |