← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 46% | 49% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
| Chievo win | 24% | 25% | 4.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 7' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 27' | 🟨 | Antonino Barillà · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Riccardo Gagliolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 46' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · Chievo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jonathan Biabiany · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 73' | 🟥 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Strahinja Tanasijević · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| coach days | 738.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1568.35 | 1431.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.17 | -4.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| league points | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.53 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.11 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.95 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |