← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 50% | 45% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
| Spal win | 22% | 30% | 4.42 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟥 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 15' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 25' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kevin Bonifazi · Spal |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Francesco Vicari · Spal |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mirko Valdifiori · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 8.00 | 1469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1489.96 | 1519.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.76 | -35.12 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |