← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 47% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 26% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 23' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Empoli |
| 41' | ⚽ | Andrea Poli · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leonardo Capezzi · Empoli |
| 80' | ⚽ | Antonino La Gumina · Empoli |
| 87' | 🟨 | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 38.00 | 161.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1578.14 | 1467.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.83 | -9.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |