← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 51% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.74 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 23% | 20% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 41' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 64' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 84' | ⚽ | Artur Ioniță · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darijo Srna · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Darijo Srna · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days | 160.00 | 555.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1613.85 | 1852.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.27 | -8.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.45 | 26.38 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |