← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 62% | 67% | 1.57 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 3.97 | fair |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 14% | 12% | 7.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Juventus FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ivan Perisic · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1620.00 | 554.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| elo | 2066.49 | 1843.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.59 | 13.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| league points | 40.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.86 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | 1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 28.97 | 28.11 |
| state index | 2.17 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |