← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 52% | 59% | 1.88 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.59 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 21% | 19% | 4.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Rômulo · Genoa CFC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Rômulo · Genoa CFC |
| 28' | 🟥 | Rômulo · Genoa CFC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Soualiho Meïté · Torino FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 335.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1632.79 | 1494.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.97 | -15.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| league points | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |