← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 63% | 69% | 1.53 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.24 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 14% | 11% | 7.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Patrick Cutrone · AC Milan |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jonathan Biabiany · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 72' | 🟨 | Simone Iacoponi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 396.00 | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1800.60 | 1633.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.87 | 2.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.82 |
| league points | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 34.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 29.06 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -1.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |