← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 70% | 1.52 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.42 | fair |
| Chievo win | 14% | 13% | 6.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 25' | ⚽ | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Chievo |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 31.00 | 975.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1426.05 | 1695.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.78 | -11.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.91 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| league points | 4.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.31 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.27 |
| state index | -1.46 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |