← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal win | 39% | 46% | 2.49 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Empoli win | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 15' | 🟨 | Domenico Maietta · Empoli |
| 24' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 34' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 43' | ⚽ | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 49' | 🟥 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Spal |
| 89' | 🟨 | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1461.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1519.39 | 1578.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.28 | 9.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |