← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 85% | 90% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 7% | 8.73 | fair |
| Chievo win | 4% | 3% | 23.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Amadou Diawara · SSC Napoli |
| 57' | 🟨 | Federico Barba · Chievo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 20 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 208.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.71 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1846.46 | 1417.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.85 | -33.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| league points | 28.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.66 | -1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |