← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 55% | 59% | 1.78 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 19% | 17% | 5.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Wallace · AC Milan |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gianluigi Donnarumma · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 968.00 | 389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1809.73 | 1794.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.79 | 6.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 25.69 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.27 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |