← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 35% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 34% | 38% | 2.84 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 17' | 🟨 | Emil Audero · Sampdoria |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sandro · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 55.00 | 877.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1494.62 | 1561.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.45 | -18.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 22.98 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |