← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.19 | fair |
| Empoli win | 18% | 17% | 5.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Empoli |
| 33' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Antonino La Gumina · Empoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Domenico Maietta · Empoli |
| 69' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Andrea Masiello · Empoli |
| 84' | 🟨 | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 84' | 🟥 | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matías Silvestre · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 24.00 | 907.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1565.91 | 1703.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.60 | 30.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 1.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.32 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |