← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 40% | 42% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.21 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 29% | 35% | 3.31 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Vitor Hugo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | 🟨 | Arturo Calabresi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 147.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1581.15 | 1753.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.42 | -14.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 23.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |