← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +3% |
| AC Milan win | 18% | 19% | 5.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · AC Milan |
| 81' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Higuaín · AC Milan |
| 83' | 🟥 | Gonzalo Higuaín · AC Milan |
| 87' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 375.00 | 1594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1801.99 | 2050.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.82 | 6.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 2.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 28.35 |
| state index | 0.85 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |