← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 25% | 26% | 3.91 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 24' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Udinese Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Miha Zajc · Empoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 51' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ignacio Pussetto · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 13 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1559.60 | 1485.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.23 | -21.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.92 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |