← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 37% | 40% | 2.61 | value: +5% |
| Chievo win | 32% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Federico Santander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 5' | 🟨 | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 15' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 19' | 🟨 | Arturo Calabresi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Filip Helander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joel Obi · Chievo |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 56' | ⚽ | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Sofian Kiyine · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 10.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1417.25 | 1474.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.71 | -2.92 |
| eye test v1 | -1.45 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.18 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.69 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |