← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 68% | 63% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.84 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 12% | 17% | 8.07 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 62' | ⚽ | Fabián Ruiz · SSC Napoli |
| 77' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Stephane Omeonga · Genoa CFC |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Davide Biraschi · SSC Napoli |
| 87' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kévin Malcuit · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 40.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 4.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1497.86 | 1843.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.95 | 1.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.64 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.69 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |