← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 21% | 26% | 4.70 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 64' | 🟨 | William Troost-Ekong · Udinese Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cristián Zapata · AC Milan |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ignacio Pussetto · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bram Nuytinck · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 3.00 | 368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1598.39 | 1797.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.89 | -8.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.80 | 24.80 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |