← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 46% | 44% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +4% |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 26% | 26% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 703.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1611.96 | 1545.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.26 | 10.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.60 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 31.27 | 26.85 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |