← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 79% | 86% | 1.22 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 6.86 | fair |
| Empoli win | 7% | 5% | 14.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 38' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · Empoli |
| 58' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Empoli |
| 64' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 86' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 185.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.25 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1838.43 | 1564.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.19 | -21.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| league points | 22.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.37 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |