← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 38% | 48% | 2.54 | value: +23% |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 32% | 24% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 941.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1819.28 | 1829.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.90 | 34.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.79 | 27.90 |
| state index | 1.04 | 1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |