← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 60% | 55% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.09 | value: +4% |
| AS Roma win | 16% | 20% | 6.11 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 55' | 🟨 | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 58' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · AS Roma |
| 68' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 80' | 🟨 | Robin Olsen · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 17 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 180.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1953.84 | 1861.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.88 | -29.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 1.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 28.13 | 26.77 |
| state index | 1.88 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |