← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 47% | 47% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 19' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Udinese Calcio |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nicholas Opoku · Udinese Calcio |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Rômulo · Genoa CFC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 67' | 🟨 | Juan Musso · Udinese Calcio |
| 67' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 74' | 🟥 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 27.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1510.02 | 1488.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.99 | -6.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.69 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.16 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |