← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 61% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.22 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 16% | 18% | 6.17 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Luca Siligardi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| coach days | 689.00 | 933.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1631.04 | 1793.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.12 | -10.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 30.43 | 28.46 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.68 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |