← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 84% | 83% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 8.09 | value: +5% |
| Genoa CFC win | 4% | 4% | 22.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Genoa CFC |
| 18' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Medhi Benatia · Juventus FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 1572.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1942.99 | 1501.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.23 | 8.48 |
| eye test v1 | 1.65 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 46.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 24.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.75 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.75 | — |
| state index | 2.06 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |