← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 62% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.98 | fair |
| Spal win | 13% | 18% | 7.21 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Mauro Icardi · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 31' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · Spal |
| 50' | 🟨 | Mattia Valoti · Spal |
| 52' | 🟨 | Simone Missiroli · Spal |
| 52' | 🟨 | Šime Vrsaljko · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 72' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mauro Icardi · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 80' | 🟨 | João Miranda · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 84' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 86' | 🟨 | Everton Luiz · Spal |
| 86' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1406.00 | 493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1613.83 | 1815.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.70 | 13.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 28.73 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |