← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.66 | value: +12% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 18% | 17% | 5.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 13 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 6.00 | 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1516.81 | 1559.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.29 | 28.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 30.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.73 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -1.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |