← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 74% | 74% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.37 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 8% | 11% | 12.24 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Bentancur · Juventus FC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 97.00 | 1558.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1497.44 | 1940.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.42 | 17.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 26.75 |
| state index | -0.28 | 1.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |