← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 55% | 64% | 1.76 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.14 | fair |
| Empoli win | 21% | 16% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · Empoli |
| 36' | ⚽ | Steven N'Zonzi · AS Roma |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 83' | 🟨 | Matías Silvestre · Empoli |
| 85' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 309.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1635.69 | 1879.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.90 | -30.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 29.29 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |