← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ivano Pezzuto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 66% | 64% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.31 | value: +18% |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 11% | 9% | 8.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 20' | ⚽ | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Frosinone Calcio |
| 58' | ⚽ | Edoardo Goldaniga · Frosinone Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Salvatore Sirigu · Torino FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luka Krajnc · Frosinone Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · Torino FC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Álex Berenguer · Torino FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Soualiho Meïté · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 277.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1738.77 | 1522.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.44 | -35.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| league points | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 28.15 |
| state index | 0.51 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |