← Serie A 2018-19 · Mon, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
| Spal win | 19% | 19% | 5.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Alberto Paloschi · Spal |
| 25' | ⚽ | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 37' | 🟨 | Felipe · Spal |
| 40' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Sampdoria |
| 40' | 🟨 | Everton Luiz · Spal |
| 49' | 🟨 | Nicola Murru · Sampdoria |
| 60' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 822.00 | 1400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1677.01 | 1620.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.40 | -4.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.76 |
| league points | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 27.17 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |