← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luca Sacchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 44% | 38% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.37 | value: +5% |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 27% | 31% | 3.59 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Frosinone Calcio |
| 33' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
| 56' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Frosinone Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Joel Campbell · Frosinone Calcio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sandro · Genoa CFC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 486.00 | 333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1494.74 | 1505.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.55 | 13.92 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | — |
| league points | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 0.17 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.19 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |