← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 80% | 86% | 1.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.13 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 6% | 4% | 16.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Cengiz Ünder · AS Roma |
| 28' | ⚽ | Javier Pastore · AS Roma |
| 35' | ⚽ | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 87' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Kolarov · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Campbell · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 482.00 | 482.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1865.93 | 1535.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.14 | -28.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | -1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.51 |
| league points | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 28.42 | 27.38 |
| state index | 0.50 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |