← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 79% | 85% | 1.22 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 15% | 12% | 6.51 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 6% | 4% | 16.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 33' | 🟨 | Leo Štulac · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 47' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bruno Alves · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Milik · SSC Napoli |
| 89' | 🟨 | Antonino Barillà · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 2 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 148.00 | 664.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1837.25 | 1554.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.00 | 12.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.80 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |