← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 86% | 80% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 16% | 9.25 | value: +52% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 4% | 3% | 25.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Blaise Matuidi · Juventus FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nehuén Paz · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Danilo · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Arturo Calabresi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1548.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1929.58 | 1478.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.61 | 0.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.62 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.99 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.75 | — |
| state index | 1.82 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |