← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.69 | fair |
| Chievo win | 18% | 18% | 5.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Mehdi Léris · Chievo |
| 12' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Christian Kouamé · Genoa CFC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 31' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luca Rossettini · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 329.00 | 1456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1493.98 | 1469.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.80 | -18.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| league points | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.71 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |