← Serie A 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 42% | 36% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 29% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria |
| 59' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Sampdoria |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 87.00 | 817.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1591.55 | 1677.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.01 | 27.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |