← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 66% | 66% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.44 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 13% | 11% | 7.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 11' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Genoa CFC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · SS Lazio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 905.00 | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1712.04 | 1500.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.89 | -10.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.27 | — |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |