← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 3.98 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 17% | 16% | 5.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 36' | ⚽ | Federico Mattiello · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Federico Santander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
| 79' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastien De Maio · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Mbaye · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 84.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1561.15 | 1890.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.60 | -12.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 27.31 |
| state index | -0.82 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |