← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 39% | 37% | 2.48 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 32% | 29% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.36 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Roberto Inglese · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Riccardo Gagliolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Gervinho · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Antonino Barillà · Parma Calcio 1913 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Ennio Tardini |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 660.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1593.82 | 1604.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.85 | 25.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.25 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.59 | 27.83 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |