β Serie A 2018-19 Β· Mon, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 55% | 63% | 1.76 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.84 | fair |
| Spal win | 20% | 18% | 4.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | π¨ | Remo Freuler Β· Atalanta BC |
| 36' | π¨ | Emiliano Rigoni Β· Atalanta BC |
| 40' | π¨ | Andrea Petagna Β· Spal |
| 49' | π¨ | Robin Gosens Β· Atalanta BC |
| 50' | β½ | Andrea Petagna Β· Spal |
| 56' | β½ | Andrea Petagna Β· Spal |
| 60' | π¨ | Felipe Β· Spal |
| 64' | π¨ | Marten de Roon Β· Atalanta BC |
| 90' | π¨ | Everton Luiz Β· Spal |
| 90' | π¨ | Josip IliΔiΔ Β· Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
| coach days | 1386.00 | 838.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1626.88 | 1797.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.58 | -18.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | β | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |