← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 80% | 78% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 6.94 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 6% | 9% | 15.44 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Filip Đuričić · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · Juventus FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mehdi Bourabia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 50' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Douglas Costa · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Douglas Costa · Juventus FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1538.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| elo | 2039.03 | 1659.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.08 | 35.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.12 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 30.28 | 25.46 |
| state index | 1.91 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |