← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 67% | 63% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.56 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 11% | 15% | 8.62 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 43' | 🟨 | Marco Benassi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 79' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 137.00 | 471.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 4.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1823.84 | 1649.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.75 | -9.70 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.90 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |