← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 38% | 50% | 2.54 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 31% | 20% | 3.09 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 17' | 🟨 | Raffaele Maiello · Frosinone Calcio |
| 22' | 🟨 | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nicolò Brighenti · Frosinone Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Sampdoria |
| 54' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
| 63' | 🟨 | Danilo Soddimo · Frosinone Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Dawid Kownacki · Sampdoria |
| 86' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Benito Stirpe |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 471.00 | 806.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1554.27 | 1669.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.08 | -13.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 27.25 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |