← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 58% | 54% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| Spal win | 16% | 19% | 6.20 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Spal |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Emiliano Moretti · Torino FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Spal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 244.00 | 1371.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1734.33 | 1632.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.27 | 36.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.54 | 27.99 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |