← Serie A 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 42% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.32 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rogério · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Giangiacomo Magnani · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Kevin-Prince Boateng · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 38' | ⚽ | Pol Lirola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Nicolás Spolli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Gian Marco Ferrari · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 70' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Krzysztof Piątek · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfred Duncan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Bessa · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 63.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1540.14 | 1503.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.04 | -21.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |